Trade War Between Brazil and Argentina?

Rivalry... not only on the pitch

The current situation is not what the former presidents Raúl Alfonsín (Argentina) and José Sarney (Brazil) had in mind, when they signed the PICE (Programa de Integração e Cooperação Econômica Argentina-Brasil), commonly heralded as the precursor of the South American free-trade market Mercosur. At the time, the program even proposed a common currency, the Gaucho...

The situation has become rough. Argentina is not known for freedom of trade - it frequently figures in the list of countries with the most trade barriers and of the least free capital flows. However, this has usually been limited to evil empires such as the USA and China. But things have become more serious with Argentinas most important trade partner, Brazil.

Argentina exports 2bn USD of foodstuffs to Brazil, but Brazil also exports 500m of foodstuffs the other way around. So when Argentina started raising barriers in foodstuffs, Brazil retaliated. Things then escalated to the point when, last week, Brazil stopped emiting automatic licenses for automobiles from "neighboring countries", affecting Argentina strongly. Since then, each import process requires a separate license. Hundreds of cars are stuck at the border, awaiting licenses to be emitted.

The trade barriers today between both countries already affect, food, shoes and clothing, some machinery, some chemicals and more to come.

Alessandro Teixeira, Development Minister in Brazil and the Industry Secretary in Argentina, Eduardo Bianchi, have scheduled a meeting to discuss on how to proceed... and possibly try to figure out how all of this really started - the situation is pretty botched up and is affecting a high demand of imported goods in Brazil (due to a cheap USD and strong Real) adversely. If the situation escalates, which it surely may, large industry sections may continue to be affected.

Gentlemen, start your engines

Brazil has a long history of a local vehicle manufacturing industry. In the 50s, Toyota built the famous Bandeirante, then in the 60s Volkswagen setup a factory to build the Kombi and then Fusca. And it went on from there. Today, the assortment is broad with Nissan, Renault, Peugeot, Citroën, Honda, Hyundai, Chrysler and Audi producing locally on their own or in partnerships, apart from the established VW, GM, Ford and Fiat. The only local company producing is Troller, which builds jeeps said to master any terrain.

But the latest coup is from Hyundai. Already with an OEM in the Goias state (with CAOA), the Korean firm is now setting up shop in Piracicaba (roughly 100km from Sampa) with a factory that will be the largest outside of Korea. Next year, up to 3000 Korean expats are said to start coming there to prepare all the engineering work and production setup. Hyundai will overtake Ford as 5th largest producer in Brazil in 2013 and already today has 3% of the market - the plant, a total investment of 600m USD, will boost this growth. Local business is already excited: Real estate prices have shot up since the announcement last year and even a golf course is under construction to accomodate Korean Execs.


The investment makes so much sense because importing to Brazil is prohibitively expensive. Duties are 35%, local taxes another 60%, plus fees means that the local price will be roughly double of what a car costs abroad. If Hyundai can keep a part of this money in its own pocket and keep growing like they have, this will mean great business.

In addition, more local manufacturing will help the Brazilian economy further diversify away from commodities - even if under the current exchange rate scenario, importing is so cheap.