Groundhog Day in Brazil

No, this is Barcelona airport (and yes, it is in operation)

I came back from Spain last weekend and came through two airports there: Palma and Barcelona. Both are huge and whereas Palma is a bit old, it is still fairly efficient and even sports valet parking. Barcelona by contrast is a modern, efficient and great airport to fly into and out of or to connect through: Transit is fast, waiting times short, with a great shopping area and a pretty good Spanair lounge.

Then I flew into Guarulhos and noticed how much there still is to do...But the airport claims to be ready for the world cup, with a MOP (Modulo Operacional Provisiorio, i.e. a provisional terminal). I was also "lucky" to experience this MOP on a business trip this week: Whoever has flown through many of these RyanAir airports in Europe will be able to picture this well: A very simple structure with many chairs and a small counter which sells semblances of food - if you are willing to fork out 3.00USD for a bottle of water - has the charm of a bus station. Oh yes, my flight also left late and came back late the next day... And I also did not find a parking space, I did what everybody does. As there is no alternative and the generous 3000 spaces are never enough...

What else is new this week?

• The minister of tourism quit after allegations of corruption - that is number 5 this year. The new minister (also from the PMDB) has named his number one priority getting ready for the world cup. Sounds like Groundhog Day to me.
• A new hobby of thieves, blowing up ATMs, seems to be catching on. This week, the 500th (yes, five hundred) ATM was blown up trying to get some easy money. Unfortunately for the culprits, the money was tainted with special ink, as is the case of most ATM if they are tampered with. The Civil Police is searching chemical industries in the whole region for possible losses of chemical products used to make explosives... 500 ATM, that is alot of explosive in just 9 months...
• Inflation is expected to hit around 7.5% this year, and GDP growth should not surpass 3.5%
• The USD hit a 12-month high vs the BRL - this will help exports and possibly slow down some speculative capital inflows
• To protect the Brazilian car industry, the government has increased the IPI (a tax) for small cars with no Brazilian components to 35% (up from 7%)
• Construction Workers at the 2014 World Cup Stadiums in Rio and Belo Horizonte have been on strike (B.H. sind this week, Rio since September 1)

Looks like the last couple months will not be boring. ;-)

UPDATE 17.09.2011: According to the Infraero website, the MOP in Guarulhos is not temporary, but can be used "for a very long time, if required".

Time for a bullet update

Not really a fast train in another BRIC country

In my post at the end of last year I was very skeptical about the bullet train engineering and auctioning process. So where are we now? The April 29 date for receiving the documentation of bidders war postponed to the end of July, when it was cancelled.

The current situation is now that the bidding is to be divided into two parts: technology and operator in the first part and construction in the second part.

The two phases of bidding are to start in September or October (whatever that means) but the schedule is to remain unchanged with construction beginning in 2013 and the whole project not costing more than 20bn USD. At the rate the USD is falling, I may even believe the latter part... but 2013 is just around the corner - especially if the bidding gets delayed for another year.

But after that it can get accelerated - biddings for the World Cup can already be kept in partial secrecy so that the evil press and public doesn't snoop around too much. Why not expand to the bullet train?

BTW: No bids have been received yet - must be one hell of an interesting project in the Country of the Future.

Linklist of the week

For lack of time to actually write something, at least my latest reading list:

• Website focusing on infrastructure investments for the world cup: http://www.copa2014.org.br/en/infrastructure/
• Should you speak some Portuguese, 20% salary increases in a year in many professional categories. Nice article in Exame: http://exame.abril.com.br/carreira/noticias/salarios-aumentam-mais-de-20-em-um-ano-diz-robert-half
• Brazil still is not the berth of intellectualism. The JiaoTong University has released it's latest ranking and Brazil is not in the top 100: http://www.arwu.org/index.jsp (The top 20 contain two British, one Japanese and 17 US Universities)
  

The World Cup and a Lack of Sense of Urgency

Yes, pretty it is, but will it be ready by 2014?
Source: Copa2014.org.br

The never-ending story: The World Cup. There is a current blog entry on veja.com.br, coinciding with this weeks cover story. Veja did a fairly simple, if simplistic calculation: How much has been spent so far, how much time until the World Cup, so when will the stadiums get done?

The answer: All but one will be finished AFTER the World Cup.

Stadium	Budget	Spent to date	Conclusion Run-Rate
Corinthians (SP)	R$ 1bn	Zero	Never
A. das Dunas (RN)	R$ 400m	Zero	Never
A. da Baixada (PR)	R$ 220m	Zero	Never
Maracanã (RJ)	R$ 957m	R$ 26m	2038
Arena Pernambuco	R$ 532m	R$ 60m	2025
Arena Amazônia	R$ 499,5m	R$ 30m	2024
Mineirão (MG)	R$ 666m	R$ 86,6m	2020
Nacional (DF)	R$ 670m	R$ 45m	2021
Arena (MT)	R$ 355m	R$ 48m	2017
Beira Rio (RS)	R$ 290m	R$ 30m	2017
Fonte Nova (GO)	R$ 591m	R$ 99,9m	2015
Castelão (CE)	R$ 519 milhões	R$ 80m	2013 (October)

Source: Veja Magazine

Is this likely? Probably not. Is this possible? At least for a few of the stadiums, it is starting to seem that way. Why so? Well, apart from a Brazilian lack of sense of urgency (which can drive the German author of this blog mad at times), aparently, there have been some problems with planning. The Brasilia stadium, for example, was planned without grass, seats and illumination (so it will cost more). In the Maracana stadium, the construction company found that the concrete structure was rotten only after tearing out the seats (what a surprise, considering the stadium was completed for the 1950 World Cup on the run and probably not much has been invested since - also here, more will be spent... and it will take a wee longer).

The blog is worth a read, and the issue is worth buying, as it also contains a bunch or pretty pictures of what stadiums should not look like three years before the cup... The first part of the solution will probably be to throw so much money at the construction, to get them finished on time. This has worked in the past: The 2007 Pan American Games were suffering from the same problem, until the government decided to "invest" a bit more in the last six months prior to the games. The result: An overspend of R$3.6bn - instead of R$400m, the cost went up to R$4bn. The second part of the solution will be to reduce the amount of venues from twelve to... 8 or less. Bookmark this page. I am betting on the exit of Manaus, Natal and Curitiba - and Sampa will not host the opening game.

Now, the only question (apart from the many above) is: Where will the 2013 Confederations Cup be held? Oh, and let us not talk about airports this time...

P.S. There even is an official (?) site or the Itaquerão (São Paulo Stadium depicted above): http://www.itaquerao.com/  - But the bandwidth has been exceeded... so Error 509 for you...

Now official: Airports will not be ready for the World Cup

Reality today... and in 2014... and in 2016...

The renown (governmental) institute IPEA has now confirmed what most realists have known for a while: The airports will not be ready for the World Cup in 2014. Notable exemptions are Curitiba and Tom Jobim in Rio.

While the Minister for Civil Aviation (a brand new ministry) Wagner Bittencourt still claims that the timeplan is "adequate", he seems to be in denial, ignoring the IPEA data.

Experts have long advocated the privatisation of the airports to ensure that infrastructure grows ahead of (or at least with) deman - but the government remains stubborn that airports remain a national interest and thus must be state operated. Now it is too late...

Of the 13 airports under construction and modernisation, 9 will not be ready by 2014... among these the unimportant Sampa Guarulhos, Salvador and Brasília. And what is worse, these will not be ready for the 2016 olympics (Only Porto Alegre and Belo Horizonte will be) - so do not plan any extensive travel outside of sporting events in 2014 or 2016.

This blog, as one of many sources, has repeatedly highlighted that there is a huge risk of the aiports, most specifically Guarulhos not being ready for the World Cup 2014, nor the Olympics in 2016. And this is not only based on other news sources or what I hear and read. I fly in and out of Guarulhos at least once a month and just recently signs have gone up announcing the modernisation and expansion of the security area and passport controls... Unfortunately, as in many cases, it will take a long time until something starts happening - but the renderings on the posters look nice.

Oh, and to add to the troubles, the Itaquera Stadium in Sampa, which apparently should host matches during the World Cup (if they ever get construction started), will not be ready for the Confederations Cup in 2013.

And I will not even get started on any bullet train discussion - this is just sad.

World Cup Troubles

Let Us Hope there are no second thoughts about this

To make it quick: The 2014 World Cup is in trouble. A report to be released these days (today?) will put a green light on the stadium construction of Belo Horizonte. Full Stop. All other stadiums will receive a yellow light for progress - except for Natal and São Paulo, where construction hasn't even begun. To be honest, I still do not know where and how the São Paulo stadium should be built.

The second part of the bad news is that almost all infrastructure to support the world cup (airports, roads, subway, etc.) will receive at least a yellow light. The "grand plan" for São Paulo is expected to be to block all access roads to and from stadiums and major hotel districts to allow soccer fans to get to and from the games - killing off the rest of the city.

The third part of the bad news is that, contrary to initial official news, almost no private money will be used for infrastructure and stadium construction. The required money is estimated to be a total of ca. 10 billion Euros, of which 7.2 billion Euros alone are for airport infrastructure projects. The available 147m EUR from the private sector are from soccer clubs used to build or refurbish their own stadiums. In other words, the tax payer will pay for 98.5% of the cost. Good job.

The fourth part of the bad news is that the world cup will be in roughly 1200 days.

The fifth and final part is that at least six stadiums with infrastructure need to be ready in 835 days - for the confederations cup...

EDIT AND UPDATE: Since last year, costs for stadium construction have already gone up, on average, by 57% according to AFP. Top cost increases were registered in Salvador, at 170%.

Bullet Train Delayed

High-Speed Train Route Proposal (From Wolters Kluwer)

A very typically Brazilian story - the bullet train Brazil wanted to partially build in time for the Olympics in 2016, and be completely finished by 2017 (see the entry from Wolters Kluwer above), has been delayed.

The 20bn USD project was supposed to have all bids in by Nov 20 and the decision by Dec 16 has now been postponed to April 29 to allow "all interested companies to participate". Also, according to the auctioning body, this delay will not delay construction... really? So they will just work 6 months faster?

I do not want to sound negative, but

a) The project will never be finished on time, Brazil has a great history of announcing and then not delivering - especially this bullet train has been a company fantasy for decades (just like the maglev in Germany)

b) The project will cost a fortune - 20bn will never be enough

c) The route will run a completely different route

If Brazil is lucky, the project will be completed by the 2020 Expo... for which a site also still has to be found.

No World Cup in Sao Paulo?

In the middle of the world cup of South Africa, the Fifa has announced (rather quietly) that the Morumbi stadium in Sao Paulo and surrounding infrastructure is not suited for a world cup game...

This does not really come as a surprise - during a game I recently saw in the stadium, I was afraid parts of the ceiling would come down and I walked for 10 minutes to find food that went beyond dry popcorn.

But I am sure there will be some "jeitinho" to find an alternative - maybe they can build a new stadium?

The picture above shows a (poor) design that was planned to "pimp" the stadium for the world cup...

Invest in Infrastructure

Ok, it's more an advertisement than news, and it is German, but the main two points are:

1. Invest in Infrastructure in Brazil

2. The government in Brasilia has noticed this too - there will be a World Cup and Olympics... or so they hope.

But read my lips: There will be no bullet train by 2014 and none by 2016 between SP and Rio... the bullet train is the oldest promise of wanting to be the country of the future - I had heard it when I still lived here in the early 90s...

Read more here.