Sunday, February 13, 2011

Cooked Inflation

Everybody in South America talks about the understated inflation in Argentina. The government claims it to be 10%, but it most likely is 20+%...

Now I have seen life in Sao Paulo get more expensive over the past months. My unrepresentative list goes like this:

- Club Monthly Fees: 13.6%
- Picanha at my grocer: 45%
- Taxi fare: +28%
- Milk: +8%
- Private School: +12%
- Real estate: Do not even mention it...

Official inflation is only aroung 5-6% but prices have been creeping up beyond, mostly food - possibly a bi-product of commodity inflation. Official numbers are not confirmed at the levels above... yet. With commodity prices soaring all around the world, more is likely to come, but I am worried that there may be much more already here in the country.

My fears have been "confirmed" with two pieces of news I came across recently: This week's Veja magazine, which is running a (non-representative and somewhat populist) special and The Economist, which has compiled a Big Mac implied inflation index. This index puts inflation in Brazil at n+4%, so more around 10%... Keep your eyes and ears open.

EDIT: Where you look, more news. Here from the Brazil Institute.


  1. Sao Paulo is always so expensive, I am usually disoriented when it comes to prices...anyway...

  2. G&R, but São Paulo has become more expensive. The FX-Rate to the USD and EUR has been in this range before the crisis of 2008, but then local prices were much lower, so this is worrisome not only for the expats that signed up at the FX-peak, but especially for locals who have had wage-increases of 8% p.a. and are now having to fight off a higher inflation.

  3. Rio has definitely become more expensive. Supermarkets and services can be added to your list!